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I enjoy board games. Recently, I was introduced to Doom - The Boardgame, which captures the setting of the video game(s) quite well. However, due to to being new to the game, the marines lost the majority of all games.

We figured that we did not understand the game mechanics correctly. To remedy this, I started calculating the probabilities and “expected values” of the marine weapons. Below is a table with accurate and approximate results.

Although my knowledge of statistics is very limited, the calculations were rather straightforward. The only pitfall is the calculation of expected values for weapons that use multiple dice. Here, the probability of a miss needs to be taken into account.

Weapon statistics

Note that these are raw data based on the dice. You need to add any damage or range bonuses for yourself.

Weapon	PHit	PAmmo	Expected damage	Expected range
Fist, Chainsaw	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	0	[13/6] ≈ 2.17	[7/6] ≈ 1.17
Pistol	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[13/9] ≈ 1.44	[143/36] ≈ 3.97
Machine gun	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[13/4] = 3.25	[17/4] = 4.25
Grenade	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[43/9] ≈ 4.78	[49/18] ≈ 2.72
Shotgun	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[143/36] ≈ 3.97	[7/6] ≈ 1.44
Rocket launcher	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[127/36] ≈ 3.53	[109/18] ≈ 6.06
Chain gun	[5/6] ≈ 0.83	[1/3] ≈ 0.33	[49/18] ≈ 2.72	[43/9] ≈ 4.78
Plasma gun	[25/36] ≈ 0.69	[4/9] ≈ 0.44	[325/72] ≈ 4.51	[325/72] ≈ 4.51
BFG	[25/36] ≈ 0.69	[4/9] ≈ 0.44	[25/4] = 6.25	[25/4] = 6.25